30 September 2025, 11:00 CET
Seminar Room 1.205
Luke Hosford
ISDC - International Security and Development Center
As the extent and duration of forced displacement increase, the action needed to support people during their displacement has shifted from short-term humanitarian provision to long-term protection support. Concerns, cynical and real, have arisen that these longer-term interventions encourage refugees to stay in their places of displacement, even after it becomes safe or beneficial to return home. Using unique data from all registered refugees in Ethiopia and the largescale return of South Sudanese refugees shortly after a peace agreement in 2019, we show the opposite to be true. Recipients of UNHCR transfers (cash or food vouchers of equivalent value) are more likely to return from Ethiopia to South Sudan after the peace agreement is signed than those who did not receive assistance, with cash having a more pronounced effect. This study provides causal evidence that there is no trade-off, practical or political, between protection support and durable solutions.
Aysegül Kayaoglu
University of Bremen
Terrorism and conflict are widely recognized for their detrimental social and economic impacts. However, empirical research directly linking terrorism to child labor remains limited. Existing literature predominantly focuses on large-scale wars or civil conflicts, often overlooking the distinct effects of terrorism—typically low-intensity, non-state violence targeting civilians. Moreover, macro-level or cross-country analyses obscure critical heterogeneities at the household and subnational levels. Addressing these gaps, this study employs microdata from Turkey spanning 2006 to 2019 and utilizes a difference-in-differences approach to examine the causal relationship between terrorism and child labor. By integrating administrative records of terrorist incidents at the provincial level with nationally representative Child Labor Surveys, the study investigates how localized violence affects the household decisions regarding child labor. The findings reveal that children from the poorest households, boys, and those residing in rural areas are disproportionately affected. The heightened vulnerability of rural and low-income populations underscores the critical role of social safety nets. Terrorism-induced income shocks likely compel households to rely on child labor to offset lost adult earnings or meet basic needs. Additionally, boys exhibit greater responsiveness to terrorism exposure, reflecting gendered expectations of economic contribution; the effect on girls, while less pronounced, remains significant, particularly in conservative and rural settings. Robustness checks support the validity of the identification strategy. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating child protection measures into broader conflict prevention frameworks. Policy interventions such as conditional cash transfers or school meal programs may be instrumental in mitigating the risk of increased child labor in areas with high intensity of terror events.
Mohammed Gebrail
University of Konstanz
This paper examines the sustainability of Sudan's external debt and proposes solutions to its ongoing debt crisis, particularly in the context of the armed conflict that started in April 2023, which led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The pressure of external debt is considered one of the main drivers of economic deterioration and conflict in Sudan. Using descriptive statistics, a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) shows that Sudan is still in debt distress, with debt burden ratios consistently exceeding the limits set by the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Three potential solutions are explored: first, receiving debt relief through the HIPC Initiative, along with reaching an agreement with NonParis Club creditors; second, repayment of the debt through collaboration with South Sudan, utilizing oil revenues; and third, as a last resort, dividing the debt between the two countries. The results indicate that Sudan’s debt burden ranges from US$ 16.2 billion to US$ 50.1 billion, while South Sudan’s debt ranges from US$14.3 billion to US$48.4 billion, depending on the allocation method. The pivotal role of Non-Paris Club creditors is stressed, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have become Sudan's largest creditors, holding 95% of the country's new debt. The GCC countries have significantly influenced Sudan's political landscape over the past two decades and now play a key role in the ongoing conflict. The findings address gaps in the existing literature and provide comprehensive policy insights for Sudan, South Sudan, and their creditors, emphasizing the importance of a cooperative approach to achieving sustainable debt management.