30 September 2025, 13:30 CET
Seminar Room 1.204
Cécile Richetta
University of Geneva
While the literature on civil conflicts acknowledges that the social and institutional consequences of violent events are not well understood, recent contributions in this area, even though increasing in numbers, have not allowed for a clear answer whether “war can foster cooperation.” We argue that this comes about by the fact that studies often consider different types of violence, measure outcomes very differently and face considerable problems in ensuring that the effects determined are actually causal. Leveraging the random assignment of Spanish conscripts to military regions until 1992, we overcome some of these challenges and can assess how violent events perpetrated by the Basque Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) in respondents’ military region during their time of service affects both generalized trust and ingroup, respectively outgroup trust . We find that the effect on the intended to treated is positive for genealized trust, but negative for outgroup trust.
Simon Hug
University of Geneva
Physical obstacles installed by the occupying forces in the West Bank are known to affect a myriad of aspects of Palestinians’ lives. Drawing on some precursor work and employing a large-scale survey carried out in 2022 in the Occupied Palestinian Territories combined with fine-grained geo-coded information on physical obstacles, we assess how the proximity to these obstacles affect the psychological well-being of Palestinians. We argue that this proximity to physical barriers lowers psychological well-being. We expect that this effect plays out in two ways, namely on the one hand in a direct way, as these obstacles, especially checkpoints, increase the chances of negative contacts with soldier of the occupying force, and on the other hand also in an indirect way. As living in a community with many obstacles in its vicinity leads to a large number of members of this community to have these negative contacts, there is also an effect on psychological well-being through the community-level exposure to physical obstacles. We provide evidence for this more fine-grained effects by drawing on additional survey data which allows us to evaluate this claims.
Sarah Fenzl
ISDC - International Security and Development Center
The expansion of settlements and illegal outposts in the West Bank serves as a tangible measure of domination in the Israel-Palestine conflict, gradually shrinking Palestinian spaces. This territorial encroachment not only alters the physical landscape in the occupied Palestinian territories but also raises questions about its impact on resistance: How does illegal outpost expansion in the West Bank affect violent resistance? Situated within the theoretical frameworks of slow violence and settler colonialism, this study analyzes whether oppressive territorial control enforces compliance and submission or instead provokes esistance.Therefore, this study is conducted on two analytical levels. First, using a Difference-in-Differences estimation with panel data from 2016 to 2023, it evaluates whether the construction of new outposts directly affects local levels of political violence. Additionally, potential reverse causality is explored—whether prior violence determines outpost expansion as a retaliatory measure. Second, an Ordinary Least Squares regression using survey data from 2022 explores the psychological effects of living in proximity to outposts, particularly in terms of aggression and despair. The findings indicate that while the single event of establishing a new outpost does not have a localized effect on levels of violent resistance or violent attitudes, the long-term presence of outposts does affect both, resulting in higher levels of political violence, and more aggressive attitudes. Notably, living in spatial proximity to any illegal outpost results in significantly heightened aggression among Palestinians. Overall, these findings yield suggestive evidence that the presence and expansion of outposts impact conflict dynamics, at least implicitly. More importantly, these conditions significantly alter individual attitudes, likely impacting individual behavior as well. By integrating spatial and temporal characteristics with individual-level insights, this research aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors driving violent resistance.