1 – From conflict to crisis: The long-term effects of Conflict on Public Health
Cecilia Natalie Strom
German Institute for Global and Area Studies
Abstract: This article investigates the impact of conflict on public health, particularly the association between the former and the level of morbidity attributed to unsafe access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). Utilizing a subset of the Global Burden of Disease Study dataset, the variation of the rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to WASH due to conflict is examined. The findings of the country-fixed effects model – using a sample of Sub-Saharan African countries – reveal that conflict significantly increases the rate of morbidity. Among the different types of conflict, fatalities attributed to non-state violence render the biggest effect on the rate of DALY, while with increased conflict history informing the general model, the effect reduces. Overall, this article contributes to the understanding of conflict impacts on societies resilience to health crises, highlighting the need for more research and policy measures to address the long-term health impacts of conflict.
2 – Income, subjective well-being and violence in Afghanistan: Evidence from a nationwide survey?
Mohammad Haroon Asadi
Phillipps-Universität Marburg
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between household income and subjective well-being, emphasizing the moderating roles of fear concerning insecurity and experiences of violence in the case of Afghanistan. We use different waves of Afghan surveys by the Asia Foundation from 2016 to 2021 across 34 provinces. Our results, based on fixed effects ordered logit regressions, show a robust positive association between income and subjective well-being, which is conditional on the level of individuals’ fear of insecurity and experience of violence. The probability of subjective well-being for high income individuals reduces by 2.5 percentage points with the presence of a feeling of insecurity. In the presence of being a victim of violence, the reduction in the probability of subjective well-being of high-income individuals is estimated to be 3.8 percentage points. In contrast, for individuals with a low level of income, a feeling of insecurity and being victim of violence do not significantly affect the likelihood of their subjective well-being. Our results remain robust after controlling for other key socio-economic and demographic determinants of subjective well-being.
3 – South Sudan, Resilience Learning: Impact evaluation
Jonas Heirman
World Food Programme
In 2022, 349 million people were identified as “acutely food-insecure”, with most of them (84 percent) living in countries where extreme weather events or conflict were the primary drivers of food insecurity. In South Sudan, the effects of concurrent climate shocks are compounded by rising food and fuel prices, and ongoing conflict. With generous support from BMZ, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) are promoting an integrated approach to resilience building through a joint programme in South Sudan. To understand the impact of this comprehensive programme, WFP’s Office of Evaluation in partnership with the World Bank, conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT). The evaluation finds that the programme had a positive impact on food security. However, improvements in food security were not consistent throughout the year, with bigger impacts observed during the post-harvest seasons, and no significant impacts observed during the lean season. Almost two years after the start of the intervention, programme-supported households also adopted their livelihood strategies in a variety of ways. However, landless, and female-headed households did not benefit equally from the agricultural focus of livelihood activities. The UNICEF education package also helped more children stay in school, and children living in households receiving livelihood support were even more likely to be in school. WFP and UNICEF are now using this evidence to design a new phase of the resilience programme.