1 – The Role of Droughts and Religious Cleavages in Pastoralist Conflict in Nigeria
Daniel Meierrieks
Humboldt University of Berlin
WZB Berlin Social Science Center
Abstract:
Since the late 1990s, clashes between nomadic herders and sedentary communities in Nigeria have become more common and violent. One explanation for this alarming trend is the unfavorable influence of droughts which have become more frequent due to climate change. Another explanation relates pastoralist conflict to interreligious tensions between the predominantly Muslim herders and Christian communities. This article studies the role of environmental and religious factors in the occurrence of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria using panel data at the 0.5 x 0.5° grid cell level between 1997 and 2020. The empirical analysis provides robust evidence that the occurrence of droughts does not raise the likelihood of pastoralist conflict in those parts of the country where Muslim herders face a largely Muslim sedentary population. However, when there is a potential for inter-religious tensions (i.e., in predominantly Christian parts of Nigeria), droughts significantly fuel pastoralist violence. That is, the adverse interaction between droughts and religious cleavages creates particularly potent conditions for the emergence of pastoralist conflict. This interpretation is supported by original survey data collected in 2021, which shows that Christians and Muslims disagree about the participants and causes of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria, again emphasizing the role of religious divides in this conflict.
2 – Agricultural Shocks and Long-Term Conflict Risk: Evidence from Desert Locust Swarms
Pierre E. Biscaye
Centre for International Development Study and Research (CERDI), CNRS – UCA – IRD.
Abstract: How do transient agricultural shocks affect the local risk of violent conflict over time? This paper studies this question using data on exposure to desert locust swarms—effectively an agriculture-specific natural disaster—across 0.25◦ grid cells in Africa and the Arabian peninsula from 1997-2018. Using difference-in-differences and event study approaches, I find that locust swarms significantly increase the annual probability of violent conflict over the following 14 years. Average long-term effects of past swarm exposure are large: a 0.8 percentage points (43%) greater annual likelihood of experiencing any violent conflict, equivalent to the effect of a 1.6◦C higher temperature in the year. The persistent effects suggest a wealth mechanism decreasing permanent income and agricultural productivity and lowering the long-term opportunity cost of fighting. Consistent with this, I find that swarm exposure significantly reduces future cereal yields. Increases in conflict risk are concentrated in years with active fighting groups in neighboring areas—when a reduced opportunity cost of fighting is combined with opportunities to fight. Patterns of long-term impacts on violent conflict are similar for severe droughts, indicating the mechanisms are not specific to locust shocks. Long-term impacts of transient economic shocks on conflict risk add further motivation for policies mitigating the risk of such shocks and promoting household resilience and long-term recovery.
3 – Building Resilience: The Effects of Conflict and Drought on Parental Investments and Early Childhood Development
Sofia Nordenving
Uppsala University
Abstract: How does hazard exposure affect young children’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills? We link detailed DHS data from Africa and the Middle East to geo-referenced armed conflict and drought data. Exploiting only highly local and short-term variation in armed conflict and drought exposure, we document an overall negative impact of exposure to these two hazards while in utero on child development. Differently, when exposed in early childhood (up to 4) there is no effect of either hazard on cognitive skills, and the effects on non-cognitive skills diverge. Conflict increases non-cognitive skills while drought decreases them. The positive conflict effect is sizeable: a one standard-deviation increase in conflict exposure increases non-cognitive skills by about 0.12 standard deviations or 11 percent. Investigating the mechanisms behind these puzzling findings, we find that the effect is driven by parents who invest more in their children when living close to fatal events. Drought exposure, on the other hand, decreases parental investments. However, an interaction analysis suggests that the positive effects of conflict on non-cognitive skills and parenting are only present when households do not experience drought at the same time, clearly indicating the detrimental effects of multiple crises. Furthermore the positive effects of conflict are absent for those countries ranking lowest on gender equality in our sample and are driven by a shift in time spent with the child by the fathers. The positive effects of conflict also disappear for households from ethnic groups directly associated with the fighting dyad, and turn significantly negative for ethnic minorities engaged in co-ethnic conflict.