1 – Cognitive load, migration, and climate adaptation in Senegal
Lena Detlefsen
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Abstract: This study investigates the impact of climate change on cognitive load and adaptation to climate change, e.g. investments or migration intentions, among rural populations in Senegal. Drawing on a sample of 4,755 men aged 18-40 across 145 villages, we employ interventions to induce cognitive load through priming on climate and financial uncertainties. Our findings suggest nuanced effects, with climate load heightening climate-related worries and financial load increasing concerns related to finances. However, these effects did not result in a reduction in cognitive resources. Instead, inducing financial load influenced decision-making by increasing external migration intentions and influencing investment preferences, while inducing climate load impacted adaptation decision-making. Our study contributes to understanding the intricate relationship between cognitive load, decision-making under constraints, and the nexus between climate change, adaptation, and migration.
2 – Global food prices and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa
Barbora Sedova
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Abstract: In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global food price changes on out-migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa due to economic reasons. We show that the effect of a locally relevant global food price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries. We further find evidence that higher producer prices increase output conflict over the appropriation of surplus in agricultural districts, which serves as a parallel mechanism explaining the household decision to send a member as a migrant.
3 – The Climate Vulnerability Index
Wolfgang Stojetz
International Security and Development Center
Abstract: This paper presents a novel survey-based methodology to measure climate vulnerability at the household level – the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) – and findings from its application to refugees in Jordan. The methodology is based on three dimensions of climate vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In turn, the CVI classifies households into four levels of climate vulnerability: Low Vulnerability, Stress, Crisis, and Emergency. By design, the index allows for comparisons both within and across groups.
In Jordan, forty percent of all refugees are at concerning levels of climate vulnerability (Stress, Crisis or Emergency status), out of which ten percent are in Emergency status. Refugees in camps are more vulnerable to climatic challenges than refugees in host communities. Yet, there is strong variance among refugees in host communities, and in certain host communities a significant share of refugees experience extreme levels of climate vulnerability.
The climatic challenges facing refugees in Jordan add to and potentially exacerbate challenges stemming from being forcibly displaced, from the legacies of having experienced violent conflict and from social and gender norms (intersectionality). Our findings emphasize a need for tailored climate-sensitive interventions that take climate vulnerability into account to support refugees effectively and efficiently.