1 – Impacts of Agricultural Aid on Child Labor and Child Marriage in Post-war Syria
Aysegul Kayaoglu
ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Germany; SOCIUM, University of Bremen, Germany; Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Germany; Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ), Germany
Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of a development aid intervention on child labor and child marriage in post-war Syria, utilizing a unique panel dataset with four waves of data collection between 2018 and 2022. Using the Kernel Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences methodology for the identification, the analysis demonstrates a significant reduction in child labor and child marriage rates among households receiving the intervention compared to control groups. We Show that key drivers were the intervention’s impact on food security, mainly through food consumption scores (FCS), dietary diversity, household resilience, and a reduction in negative coping strategies during food shortages. These findings emphasize the crucial role of agricultural aid in humanitarian and conflict-affected settings to mitigate the negative impacts of poverty on child welfare and food insecurity, contributing to enhanced resilience in vulnerable households.
2 – Foreign aid and conflict: Evidence from Colombia
Paula Stephannia Madrigal Santofimio
University of Münster, Germany; University of Passau, Germany
Marina Dodlova
University of Münster, Germany
Abstract: Despite a bulk of foreign aid every year, there is no evidence how this foreign aid influences conflict dynamics in Colombia. This paper provides a causal estimation of such a relationship at the municipality level using a shift-share instrumental variable approach based on worldwide increases in Official Development Aid (ODA) disbursements to developing countries (excluding Latin America) and the ratio of aid received by Colombian municipalities in 2010. The findings suggest that an increase in international assistance reduces conflict associated with war actions, forced disappearances, targeted assassinations, and especially sexual violence. While testing the mechanisms, we find that international assistance can decrease conflict through the opportunity cost mechanism, increasing labor wages, and decreasing labor supply for the insurgency. Further, foreign assistance can build trust in state institutions, but broken commitments can also increase mistrust and escalate conflict. No evidence of rapacity and bargaining mechanisms has been found.
3 – Development Aid in Times of Conflict: A Case Study of Iraq
Marina Dodlova
University of Münster, Germany
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of foreign aid on conflict in Iraq in 2000-2013. In particular, we analyze how development projects financed by different donors impacts conflict intensity and onset. Using the instrumental variable approach, we show that development aid increases conflict incidence and intensity in times of crisis. However, there is no impact of development aid on conflict onset. Further, development projects implemented with the purpose to end poverty (SDG1) and improve institutions, piece/justice (SDG16) provide a deterring conflict impact. We also contribute to a better understanding of possible mechanisms how development aid could deter conflict.