The massive popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in the second decade of the 21st Century, better known as the Arab Spring, challenged the entrenched authoritarian political order that dominated the region, leading to the collapse of long-reigning regimes in some major countries. However, the Arab democracy wave was not only pre-empted by authoritarian relapses, but it also resulted in horrific, high intensity and long-duration violence and mass internal and external displacement in scale rarely seen in traditional civil wars. This keynote will review the evidence on the impact on lives and livelihood of the political violence perpetrated by authoritarian regimes in response to popular democratic uprisings. The keynote will argue that the extent of fragility, economic cost, even the total or near state collapse associated with this particular type of violence have substantially limited the effectiveness of community level humanitarian support, coping mechanisms and resilience. As a consequence, the keynote will make a case for a more integrated research design, spanning community and household analysis as well as country-wide political and economic considerations. In this context, the keynote will ask some key questions as to what role has resource dependency played in promoting political violence in the region? how the interface between resource rents, social polarization, among other factors, shaped the varied responses to realized or potential popular uprisings by incumbent regimes throughout the region? And, what insight might be gained from this analysis for the design of humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction agenda.
Managing Director, Economic Research Forum