Governance and Crises
1 – The Impact of Violence Exposure on Perceptions of Governmental Corruption: A Sub-National Analysis in Africa
Kristina Petrova
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PIK, Germany; Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden; Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO, Norway
Abstract: Exposure to violence can shape people’s political attitudes and preferences. The impacts of armed conflict on citizen’s perception of corruption among state institutions are particularly relevant for political stability, peaceful political engagement and democratisation prospect in the aftermath of violent conflict. If people perceive the state as corrupt they are less likely to comply with rules and regulations, seek help, or participate in electoral processes. Our paper is one of the first to study the relationship between exposure to violence and corruption on a sub-national level, using individual level perception data. It contributes to the understanding of the role of armed conflict for perceived corruption in local and national authorities. We use geo-referenced Afrobarometer panel survey data (2005-2020), joined with second order administrative-level information on armed conflict casualties from UCDP, as well as country-level information from V-Dem, to estimate the effects of exposure to violence on perceived corruption in 34 countries in Africa. Our preliminary findings suggest that exposure to violence tends to increase people’s perception that the local and national governments are corrupt. These findings shed new light on the complex associations between exposure to violence and political attitudes.
2 – Carbon Taxation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from South Africa
Johannes Gallé
MCC Berlin; World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER); University of Mannheim; University of Münster; Carnegie Mellon University, NBER & IZA
Abstract: This paper delivers the first comprehensive analysis of how firms respond to carbon taxation in emerging economies. Our evidence builds on exhaustive administrative data from South Africa, the 13th largest emitter worldwide. The presented results are twofold. First, we establish stylized facts on the types of firms that are affected, how much revenue is generated from which sector and which share of national emissions the tax is able to capture. Second, we study the dynamic impact of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes such as sales, profits, capital and labor inputs. We show that the design of the South African Carbon Tax leads to substantial heterogeneity across sectors in terms of how strongly firms are affected. Contrary to the concern that carbon taxes may impede economic growth we measure no negative effects on firm performance on average. However, this result masks important heterogeneity as we indeed estimate substantial differences across affected industries.
Agriculture and Household Food Security
1 – Agroforestry and Household Nutrition in Southern Madagascar: Does Gender Matter?
Giulia Malevolti
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Abstract: Agroforestry is a promising adaptation strategy which can improve farmers’ resilience to climate change but also their food security and nutrition. This is because agroforestry systems produce a diversity of products which are eaten or sold. However, there is limited evidence of such spillovers of agroforestry beyond agricultural production. Moreover, little is known on the role of gender norms which shape this relation. On the one hand, women decide on food preparation, on the other hand, they often neither control the crop choice at farm level, nor the use of harvest and income. This can have consequences for the sign of the relationship between agroforestry and nutrition. We make use of novel high-frequency data from south-eastern Madagascar farmers, who are highly food insecure and exposed to frequent extreme weather events. Using an instrumental variables approach, we empirically estimate the effect of agroforestry on food security and nutrition. As a second step, we take a gender perspective, focusing on who are the decision-makers in the household for agriculture, tree management and food use decision (eat or sell), and relating decision-makers to food security. Preliminary results indicate a positive effect of agroforestry on some household food security indicators, with important seasonal variations. Furthermore, the gender of the decision maker is found to contribute to the outcomes as well. Therefore, beyond strengthening agricultural productivity, agroforestry can enhance food and nutritional security, but policies targeting tree and crop diversity should consider the different decision-making power within households.
2 – Agricultural Market Participation and Household Welfare in Kyrgyzstan
Damir Esenaliev
Leibniz Institute for Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ)
Abstract: Farm commercialization and market integration are key drivers of wellbeing and structural change in agriculture. This transformation occurs as labor shifts from agriculture to other sectors, narrowing the productivity gap and transitioning from low-productivity, semi-subsistence farming to high-productivity, commercialized agriculture. We investigate the impact of agricultural market participation on farming household welfare in Kyrgyzstan using a large-scale rotating panel survey from 2013-2020. The study focuses on a subsample of farming households, analyzing detailed information on production, consumption, and sales of crops, livestock, and livestock products. Using consumption and income as outcome variables, we examine over 30,000 households with agricultural land and livestock, representing approximately 4,500 unique households. Our analysis reveals an average market participation of 31% with some temporal variation but no clear trend. Selling households differ significantly from non-selling households across all observable control indicators, with sellers generally having larger demographic and asset endowments. Key drivers of market participation include employment in agriculture, land size, transport means, and diversity of crops and livestock. Using a panel fixed effects regression model, preliminary results indicate no effect of agricultural sales incidence on per capita total or food consumption. The lack of impact on consumption levels challenges the assumption that increasing market participation alone leads to improved welfare for farming households.