1 – Gendered Effects of Climate Shocks and Conflict on Food Security in Sudan
Aysegül Kayaoglu
SOCIUM, University of Bremen; ISDC – International Security and Development Center
Abstract: Sudan’s economy relies mainly on rainfed agriculture, with a large share of the rural population. However, the agricultural sector in Sudan currently faces a crucial challenge due to the violent conflict that started in early 2023. Furthermore, there are significant other multiplicative and recurring challenges in agricultural production and food supply due to high rainfall variability, pest and disease outbreaks, agricultural input unavailability and inaccessibility, and irrigation difficulties. Both climate shocks and conflict create a severe risk for household food insecurity, although there is a lack of country-wide assessment of the issue. This paper examines how households’ food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Our empirical analysis relies on novel representative survey data of 8,146 rural households across 14 states in Sudan collected in November 2022. We find that households with female household heads have relatively higher food insecurity than those headed by men, and the negative effect of shocks on the female-headed households can be mitigated by remittances (i.e. cash transfer), availability of productive assets, and support from women’s associations.
2 – Targeted hunger: climate-induced food insecurity, vulnerabilities and conflict in Ethiopia
Nicolò Gebbani
Ca’Foscari University of Venice
Abstract: In the last decade, the research on the role that climate change might have on conflicts has evolved rapidly. Studies have focused on effects on food yields, quantities and prices to determine potential adverse impacts food security, linking these with conflicts across the world. These attempts, however, present important limitations. The resolution of the adopted data does not allow for an actual assessment of food security among households, while the lack of household level socio-economic and demographic data does not provide enough insights to explore the role of households’ specific vulnerabilities in this relationship. To cover these gaps, we present here an attempt to link climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia between 2013 and 2016. To do so, we leverage ERA5 data in combination with the Ethiopian LSMS household survey, to estimate the effect of climate variability on households’ food security. By doing so, we also analyze how the intersection of social makers like wealth, gender, age, and market participation, moderate these impacts. Furthermore, we investigate the spatial relationship between climate variability and two types of conflict, namely violent conflict (e.g. armed clashes, battles, violence against civilians) and social conflict (e.g. protests, riots, manifestations), arguing that the intersection of a set of demographic characteristics of the population, like wealth, share of youth among households, ethnic composition, and access to media, influences conflict participation. Finally, we explore the relationship between households’ food insecurity and conflict, to see if and how conflict has been shaped by households’ experiences of food insecurity.
3 – Poly-crises in Ethiopia: The Impact of Armed Conflicts and Adverse Weather Shocks On Household Food Security
Sabine Liebenehm
University of Saskatchewan, Canada
Abstract: In Ethiopia, armed conflict and climate extremes are major drivers of acute food insecurity and hunger, reflecting global trends. Escalating violence, particularly in Amhara, and Oromo regions, compounded by prolonged drought, highlight the critical link between peace and food security. This paper investigates the intersection of armed conflicts and adverse weather shocks in Ethiopia, focusing on their combined impact on household food security and potential mechanisms, such as changes in livelihood activities and external assistance. Using data from World Bank’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), and monthly high-resolution Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI ENACTS), we analyze the potential impacts of droughts and conflict events. Empirically, we apply difference-and-difference and two-way fixed effects estimation to analyze effects across affected and unaffected communities’ pre and post conflict outbreaks. By integrating these datasets and using the monthly measures of household food security outcomes, we aim to shed light on the complex dynamics affecting vulnerable households in Ethiopia, offering insights for targeted interventions and resilience-building efforts.
4 – Local Peace Processes in Poly-Crisis: Communal Conflicts, Climate Change, and Food Insecurity in South Sudan
Jana Krause
University of Oslo, Norway
Abstract: This paper analyzes communal wars and local peace processes in South Sudan. Drawing on multi-year fieldwork, novel violent event data and survey data, I investigate how architecture and negotiation processes behind local peace agreements and the context of poly-crisis impact the durability and sustainability of local peace accords. South Sudan’s civilian population has suffered intractable and often overlapping cycles of communal conflict and civil war in parallel to the devastating impacts of climate change on livelihoods and food security. Over the past decade, the UN mission in the country, along with many international and national civil society organizations, has pursued local-level peace agreements that address communal wars and their devastating consequences on civilians and livelihoods. Even though the quality of local peace accords and their inclusivity of stakeholders has improved over time, some researchers criticize the pursuit of local peace agreements in this dire humanitarian context as futile. I combine qualitative and quantitative evidence to trace the impact of poly-crisis on the prospects of local peacemaking and identify intended and unintended consequences of local accords on national stability and civilian wellbeing.