1 – Poverty and food security amid acute conflict and climate stress: the role of social and humanitarian assistance in supporting rural Amhara households during the 2021-2022 Tigray crisis?
Rachel Sabates-Wheeler
Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex
Camelia Vasilov
Laterite
Abstract: A substantial body of literature has developed over the last 15 years investigating the relationship between widespread violent conflict and livelihoods outcomes, particularly the impacts of conflict on food security and poverty indicators (Collier, 1999; Bruck and d’Errico, 2019; Mueller and Techasunthornwat, 2020; Martin-Shields & Stojetz, 2018). There are also established links between violent conflict and forced displacement (Bruck et al, 2018) and irreversible negative effects that can transmit across generations (Alderman et al, 2006; Bundervoet et al, 2009). We also know that under very challenging circumstances households employ a variety of coping mechanisms and rely on different forms of support, with varying outcomes. Yet, little is known about how conflict interacts with social assistance to affect poverty and livelihoods outcomes (with some recent exceptions such as Tranchant et al, 2020). Even less is understood about how conflicts disrupt government and donor-provided social assistance and whether humanitarian emergency assistance is able to complement and fill provision gaps in situations of acute crisis. Furthermore, does the historical receipt of social assistance prior to a conflict enable households to better weather the possible negative impacts of the conflict in comparison to those households who have not been benefiting from social assistance, or who
have received substantially less (in amount or duration)?
Drawing on a bespoke survey and unique data set that includes two waves of panel data – wave one just before the conflict reached the study area and wave two 18 months later when the conflict had calmed we have a rare opportunity to study both the conflict impacts on lives and livelihoods for households in the region of Amhara (neighbouring Tigray) as well as the role of the national safety net programme and efforts to provide humanitarian support to the same households. The outcomes of interest in this paper include measurements of poverty (income and consumption indicators) and food security (calorie consumption and FIES). This inquiry is particularly timely and relevant, considering the recent 2020-2022 conflict that broke out in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, and spilled over into neighbouring regions.
Our motivating research questions are: How does conflict influence food security and poverty outcome among rural households in Amhara, Ethiopia? And, to what extent does social assistance, through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and Humanitarian Aid (HA), mediate the impacts of conflict on food security and socio-economic outcomes? Embedded in this second question is a question of whether there are complementarities or substitutions between different forms and providers of social assistance. We know that in violent conflict situations it can be difficult for the state to continue providing assistance (either due to logistical breakdown and delivery chain damage, or because the state is, or seen as, party to the conflict). In these situations, non-state humanitarian providers should be able to substitute for the gaps in provision. Our research here sheds light on this dynamic.
Our ambition is to provide new insights into how vulnerable households are supported through, and cope with, conflict crises and how different forms of social assistance (whether long-term state-provided or emergency support) and coping strategies can work together to help households manage acute shocks. This information will be valuable for informing social protection design and for shedding some light on the limits and opportunities for stakeholders working in the triple nexus between peace,
humanitarian, and development arenas.
2 – The Legacy of Coercive Cotton Cultivation in Colonial Mozambique
Henrique Barros
University of Lisbon
Abstract: We examine the long-term impact of forced labor on individual risk preferences and economic decisions. For that, we focus on a policy of coercive cotton cultivation enforced in colonial Mozambique between 1926 and 1961. We combine archival information about the boundaries of historical cotton concessions with survey data collected specifically for this study. By employing a regression discontinuity design to compare individuals living in areas inside and outside the historical cotton concessions, we document significant disparities in risk aversion and agricultural patterns between communities. Our findings indicate that individuals from regions unsuitable for cotton production, yet subjected to the colonial cotton regime, exhibit higher risk aversion, are more likely to engage in farming, sell their agricultural produce, adopt technology, and save. These findings are predominantly driven by individuals who recall the coercive cotton cultivation in their communities, particularly women who bore the brunt of the colonial cotton regime. This paper underscores the enduring impact of colonial agricultural policies on risk and economic behavior, providing insights into the challenges post-colonial societies face in overcoming historical legacies.
3 – The role of agriculture and gender in the midst of violent conflicts: Micro-level evidence from Burkina Faso
Mohammad H. Sepahvand
Lund University
Abstract: This study analyzes how violent conflict influence the agricultural productivity of men and women in a very poor, conflict-affected country, Burkina Faso. I use a large representative panel survey of farmers between 2017 and 2022, and merge these data with indicators of violence at the municipality and regional level. The results show that as female farmers are exposed to violence, the productivity of female-owned plots goes down. The study controls for various socio-economic factors and explores how the diversity of the regions of the country affects the relationship between productivity and violence. Findings show that conflict resolution in Burkina Faso need to be interlinked with agricultural policy interventions and gender sensitized when addressing policies that support reduction in violence and conflict.
4 – The Long-Lasting Effects of bombing on Environmental Management. Evidence from Kosovo
Elda Celislami
University of Reading; University of Turin
Abstract: In the turbulent aftermath of the Yugoslav Civil War, Kosovo emerged as a focal point of devastation. Amidst the rubble of conflict, a lesser-known story unfolds—one of waste, trust, and infant survival. While extensive research has examined the socioeconomic repercussions on labor, schooling, and child development, little attention has been given to the nexus between conflict, waste management, and infant mortality. This study investigates the long-term effects of the war on local trust, waste landfill management, and its potential correlation with infant mortality rates. Employing a triple Difference in Difference (DDD) model, alongside a simple Difference in Difference (DD) approach, the analysis focuses on assessing whether the violence during the war transformed waste landfills into health hazards. Results indicate a significant increase in infant mortality rates for children residing in heavily bombed areas within proximity to waste landfills. Furthermore, the study reveals a moderating effect, where the impact of landfill creation on infant mortality is exacerbated by both proximity to the landfill and the extent of bombing experienced by the municipality. On the second part of this paper, I examine longitudinal data on trust in Kosovo, offering a comprehensive understanding of post-war recovery dynamics.