1 – Remittance, perception of security, and incidence of violence in Kyrgyzstan
Yuanhang Wang
Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University College Station, TX
Abstract: We estimate the relationship between remittance and the perception of security and the incidence of violence in Kyrgyzstan—a nation where remittances constitute a pivotal element of the economy. We use longitudinal household data collected by the Life in Kyrgyzstan (LIK) survey and employ the ordinal logistic fixed effects estimator. We find that receiving remittance improves the perception of security and decreases the incidence of violence. A one percent increase in the amount of remittance improves the perceived security by 0.1 to 0.18 Likert-scale points and decreases the incidence of violence by one percent. Heterogeneity analysis shows that these effects are more pronounced for Kyrgyz communities, small-town residents, and wealthier households, while the effect was absent or opposite for ethnic minorities (Uzbek and Russian communities), big city residents, and impoverished households. Robustness checks using alternative measures of security yield consistent results. We also show that the improvement in the perception of security and reductions in the incidence of violence is translated into increases in trust in both local and central governments. Results imply that the remittance-induced improvement in perceived security and reduced violence can contribute to greater trust in the governments. These findings underscore the importance of remittance in personal security and the reductions in political riots and violence in a fragile economy mostly dependent on remittance.
2 – Conflict, Route Insecurity and Migration in Mali
Marion Richard
Paris School of Economics, UCLouvain
Abstract: This study aims to examine how insecurity along main migration routes in Mali affects households’ ability to rely on migration as a risk-coping and income-smoothing strategy. Exploiting detailed data on the stock of economic migrants and the origin of remittances received from all nine regions of Mali, I first estimate the additional migration costs generated by insecurity with a gravity model. In a second step, I analyze the aggregate effect of average route insecurity faced by each of the localities in its migration market. The findings show that the stock of economic migrants is only weakly correlated with average road insecurity, suggesting that reduction in accessibility of some destinations due to conflict is offset by migration to alternative destinations. New seasonal departures in migration instead are reduced for individuals in localities with high average road insecurity in localities affected by droughts. (JEL Q18, D1, D74, Q12, R23)
3 – Climate-induced migrations in Nigeria
Cecilia Nardi
Sapienza University of Rome
Abstract:This paper investigates the nexus between weather shocks and household mobility Nigeria. Using panel data from World Bank LSMS-ISA Survey (2010-2019) in combination with gridded data of SPEI, I show that higher exposure to weather shocks increases the probability that a member leaves the household. In addition, this paper assesses one mechanism explaining this nexus. Weather shocks decrease households’ agricultural production, worsening their living conditions. Decrease in agricultural production exposes them to more conflict events, triggering migration.